Will we have a Crypto "Super Cycle" 2023-2025/6?
The concept of a crypto "mega" or "super" cycle suggests a massive market expansion, potentially propelling Bitcoin to $100,000 and beyond. Despite positive macro conditions, marked by substantial capital inflows and the adoption of new services, signs of market euphoria raise caution.
Current Positive Indicators:
Over $40 billion locked in Ethereum's financial services.
Growing popularity of NFTs, expanding into various digital assets and collectibles.
Favorable macroeconomic conditions and increased on-chain activity.
Cautionary Signs:
Euphoria in new projects and tokens, reminiscent of the 2017 cycle.
Celebrity endorsements and a surge in inexperienced investors.
Past market cycles ending with a burst, raising concerns about the current cycle.
Bitcoin's Future:
Bitcoin experiencing a supply shock due to increasing demand.
"Virgin Bitcoin" being rapidly bought by long-term holders.
Diverse institutional players, funds, and retail investors contributing to sustained buying pressure.
Potential Catalysts for a Super Cycle:
Approval of Bitcoin ETFs, attracting more institutional investors.
Sovereign wealth funds, representing trillions globally, may enter the market.
Possibility of governments and central banks incorporating Bitcoin into reserves.
Conclusions (yes we will):
Uncertainty remains, tied to fiscal policies, macroeconomics, and industry-specific events.
Alignment of global dynamics may foster future developments in the crypto industry.
Increasing participation in crypto lessens the risk of government intervention.
Trillions entering the market through stimulus packages may sustain the bull run, with the potential for a super cycle. However, the exact outcome remains uncertain, and caution is warranted.